Questions are swirling about whether the U.S. government used generative AI to set the new tariffs, which are set to start on April 5. When experts ran AI models like ChatGPT, Google’s Gemini, Grok from xAI, and Claude by Anthropic to calculate global tariffs, they all came up with the same formula that President Trump recently introduced in his trade reforms.
Some critics worry that relying on AI for important policy decisions sends a dangerous message about the depth of its calculations and the potential fallout that could come from them. If these tariffs go up, the cost of electronics for consumers and businesses in the U.S. could rise sharply.
On April 3, economist James Surowiecki shared his investigation into the tariffs. He noted that the White House aims to impose “reciprocal tariffs.” However, he pointed out that the formula from the U.S. Trade Representative divides the U.S. trade deficit by each country’s exports to the U.S., which Surowiecki argued doesn’t truly reflect a reciprocal approach.
Economist Wojtek Kopczuk asked ChatGPT to calculate tariffs aimed at balancing the U.S. trade deficit. The response mirrored what the White House provided, revealing a basic method where the trade deficit is divided by total trade. Entrepreneur Amy Hoy conducted a similar test and got identical results from various AI models.
So far, the White House hasn’t commented on whether AI played a role in crafting the equation for these tariffs. We don’t know if AI generated it or what instructions were given, but the straightforward nature of the output suggests some influence from generative AI. Notably, Elon Musk, who heads xAI, is currently serving as a special government employee in the Trump administration.
Meanwhile, the Trump team claims that these high tariffs could boost U.S. manufacturing and generate revenue for the government. They say the purpose of these tariffs is to ensure fair trade, protect American workers, and reduce the trade deficit. Eric Trump highlighted the negotiation angle, stating that the first to negotiate will win, while the last will lose.
Interestingly, not all countries will face these new tariffs. Canada and Mexico, which had their own high tariffs during Trump’s administration, will be exempt. Russia, North Korea, and Cuba also remain untouchable due to existing sanctions.
